A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. They writes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has got important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
